Exploratory analysis of PM2.5 variation trend of Tehran, Iran, in various time series and its relation with cardiovascular mortality rate using R software

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Center for Air Pollution Research (CAPR), Institute for Environmental Research (IER) AND Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Institute of Public Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Among the numerous air pollutants, the strongest proof for adverse health effects has been reported for particulate matter (PM). The aim of this study was the exploration of short-term associations of air pollution with mortalities due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Tehran, Iran, based on hospital and census data from 2007 to 2013. This descriptive and analytical research was conducted in 2015. Daily and hourly pollutant concentration was obtained from Tehran Metropolitan Municipality. Mortality rate records were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Central Municipal Cemetery, and Forensic Organization. In this study, data were analyzed using R software. Zoo, Time series, Stats, ts model, and Splines software packages were installed on R platform in order to outline the trend of different variables. The results showed that accidental mortality did not follow a particular trend and non-accidental mortality followed a descending or ascending trend. However, mortality pattern showed a decreasing trend from 2011 until the end of 2012. From the beginning of 2013, mortality pattern showed increasing trend. Moreover, the direct correlation of mortality rate and PM2.5 concentration can be observed in a yearly and weekly time scale. Proof of a determined effect of airborne particles on mortality was found with PM2.5. In addition, it was found that mortality rate shows a strong seasonal pattern, with a peak in winter and a minimum in fall. The peak the mortality rate in winter is most probably due to the spread of infectious diseases such as influenza as well as temperature-related phenomena in cold weather areas. 

Keywords

References

  1. European Centre for Environment and Health. Quantification of the health effects of exposure to air pollution. Proceedings of the WHO Working Group; 2000 Nov 20-22; Bilthoven, Netherlands.
  2. Buka I, Koranteng S, Osornio-Vargas AR. The effects of air pollution on the health of children. Paediatr Child Health 2006; 11(8): 513-6.
  3. Capraz O, Efe B, Deniz A. Study on the association between air pollution and mortality in stanbul, 2007-2012. Atmos Pollut Res 2016; 7(1): 147-54.
  4. Tam WWS, Wong TW, Wong AHS. Association between air pollution and daily mortality and hospital admission due to ischaemic heart diseases in Hong Kong. Atmos Environ 2015; 120: 360-8.
  5. Pope CA 3rd, Dockery DW. Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 2006; 56(6): 709-42.
  6. Brook RD, Rajagopalan S, Pope CA 3rd, Brook JR, Bhatnagar A, Diez-Roux AV, et al. Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: An update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation 2010; 121(21): 2331-78.
  7. Kloog I, Ridgway B, Koutrakis P, Coull BA, Schwartz JD. Long-and short-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: using novel exposure models. Epidemiology 2013; 24(4): 555-61.
  8. Chen R, Peng RD, Meng X, Zhou Z, Chen B, Kan H. Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES). Sci Total Environ 2013; 450-451: 259-65.
  9. Cao J, Xu H, Xu Q, Chen B, Kan H. Fine particulate matter constituents and cardiopulmonary mortality in a heavily polluted Chinese city. Environ Health Perspect 2012; 120(3): 373-8.
  10. Wang G, Zhen L, Lu P, Jiang R, Song W. Effects of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on rat cardiac autonomic nervous system and systemic inflammation. Wei Sheng Yan Jiu 2013; 42(4): 554-60.
  11. Santos UP, Terra-Filho M, Lin CA, Pereira LA, Vieira TC, Saldiva PH, et al. Cardiac arrhythmia emergency room visits and environmental air pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil. J Epidemiol Community Health 2008; 62(3): 267-72.
  12. Xu MM, Jia YP, Li GX, Liu LQ, Mo YZ, Jin XB, et al. Relationship between ambient fine particles and ventricular repolarization changes and heart rate variability of elderly people with heart disease in Beijing, China. Biomed Environ Sci 2013; 26(8): 629-37.
  13. Gholizadeh MH, Farajzadeh M, Darand M. the correlation between air pollution and human mortality in Tehran. Hakim Res J 2009; 12(2): 65-71. [In Persian].
  14. Mousavi F, Jahed A, Rajab A, Nikuo Sokhantabar AK, Kashi G, Tabatabaee R. Survey of air pollution effect on variation of glycosylated hemoglobin a1c (hba1c) level in diabetic patients in Tehran. Iran J Health Environ 2013; 6(1): 123-32. [In Persian].
  15. Tehran Municipality. Atlas of Tehran [Online]. [cited 2016]; Available from: URL:
  16. http://atlas.tehran.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=40
  17. Ramos DP, Quijano S, Orrego D, Becerra MA. Dependence analysis using multiple linear regresion and principal component regression in air pollutants and meteorological parameters: case study. QUID: Investigacion, Ciencia y Tecnologia 2014; (23): 13-20.
  18. Hellerstein JM. Quantitative data cleaning for large databases [Online]. [cited 2008 Feb 28]; Available from: URL:
  19. http://db.cs.berkeley.edu/jmh/papers/cleaning-unece.pdf
  20. Anderson HR. Air pollution and mortality: A history. Atmos Environ 2009; 43(1): 142-52.
  21. Peng RD, Dominici F, Pastor-Barriuso R, Zeger SL, Samet JM. Seasonal analyses of air pollution and mortality in 100 US cities. Am J Epidemiol 2005; 161(6): 585-94.
  22. Chiogna M, Gaetan C. Dynamic generalized linear models with application to environmental epidemiology. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2002; 51(4): 453-68.
  23. Dominici F, Peng RD, Zeger SL, White RH, Samet JM. Particulate air pollution and mortality in the United States: did the risks change from 1987 to 2000? Am J Epidemiol 2007; 166(8): 880-8.
  24. Shahi AM, Omraninava A, Goli M, Soheilarezoomand HR, Mirzaei N. The Effects of Air Pollution on Cardiovascular and Respiratory Causes of Emergency Admission. Emerg (Tehran) 2014; 2(3): 107-14.
  25. Goudarzi G, Geravandi S, Mohammadi MJ, Salmanzadeh S, Vosoughi M, Sahebalzamani M. The relationship between air pollution exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Ahvaz, Iran. Chron Dis J 2015; 3(1): 14-20.
  26. Lu F, Zhou L, Xu Y, Zheng T, Guo Y, Wellenius GA, et al. Short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality and years of life lost in Nanjing, China. Sci Total Environ 2015; 536: 123-9.
  27. Qiu H, Tian L, Ho KF, Pun VC, Wang X, Yu IT. Air pollution and mortality: effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a case-only study. Environ Pollut 2015; 199: 192-7.
Journal of Advances in Environmental Health Research
Volume 3, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
14
December 2015
Pages 276-283

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics