Risk assessment of household gas heaters in Tehran during an earthquake crisis by using the fuzzy FMEA model

Document Type : Original Article


Department of Environmental Management and Planning, Faculty of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.



A variety of gas heaters are used in residential, administrative, and commercial buildings in Iran. Home packages (HP) and central heating boiler rooms (CHBRs) are among the most common types of heating systems that can be damaged during earthquakes and, thus, harm the building and the residents. Herein, by surveying and interviewing 50 residential buildings in District 16 of Tehran, the risks of the hazards of these facilities during earthquakes were assessed from the viewpoint of the residents. For risk assessment, the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) model in the fuzzy space, and for Risk Priority Number (RPN) defuzzification, the center of gravity method. Based on the results, 11 indicators were identified and evaluated for each system. Finally, the mean RPNs obtained for both systems were equal, with a difference of about 2%. Thus, no definitive superiority can be presumed for HP or CHBR in earthquakes. The major difference in the risk of each system can be separately evaluated based on the conditions of each building, confidence about the quality of installation, connections, pipe materials, electric wire corrosion, etc. Thus, it is suggested that the hazard risk of CHBR and HP during earthquakes is the same, and other issues such as design, economy, and technical issues will play a greater role in contractors’ selection of the system.


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